Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is expected to move the stock market “bigly” (or “big league”) one way or another if he wins the election. His policies call for huge tax cuts, repealing Obamacare and cutting government spending to reduce the national debt while boosting spending on infrastructure, e.g. building a wall with Mexico.
A panel of investment strategists has been asked to weigh in on which industries stand to gain and lose the most if Trump becomes U.S. president.
On Commercial Real Estate by Simon Calton:
Historically, the final year of any second presidential term has always been a tough year for the U.S. marketplace and the economy as a whole, mainly due to the uncertainty factor. 2016 has seen the most turmoil in respect of the candidates I’ve seen in my lifetime. So investors should be aware of the economic climate they could face should either candidate emerge victoriously.
If Trump wins, we will undoubtedly see a greater dip in the U.S. economy. I think this is mainly due to external influences as the rest of world watches to see where this move takes the United States. I would hope that shortly after the election, stability will be restored. However, with the aggressive nature of Trump’s view on the China and Mexico trade deals, the U.S.’s main trading partners may see more problems in the marketplace again due to that general buzz word – uncertainty.
The trickle down style economic tax relief policies suggested by Trump benefits a minority of the population: the rich, middle class and business people. In the short term, this could have a positive effect on the commercial real estate market as businesses start to gain momentum and purchase property. However, the long-term effects can be devastating as we have seen following the Reagan administration.
Unfortunately, serving to squash any short-term positives that come from initial tax reductions for businesses will be the remaining free world’s lack of confidence in the U.S. marketplace. This is a shame as I was starting to see a definitive shift to U.S. investment before this election took momentum. The fallout in the U.S. markets and U.S. real estate with Trump at the helm will be the lengthiest we have ever seen. This is mainly due to the world waiting for the next mistake in a line of mistakes made so far during his campaign.
Unfortunately, if these continue in his presidency, the ramifications will be much greater.
Many of Trump’s spending policies will not be affordable in light of his planned cuts. Most probably this will mean items like the Mexican border wall will not happen. Maybe (as did happen with the ‘Leave’ campaigners for the Brexit in the United Kingdom) there has never been an intention for this to happen.
Read full article: Forbes.com